How Corrupt Officials Make Millions On Demography

It seems like no one really knows how many people are born, live, and die in Ingushetia. There is no confidence in official statistics. Statistical data is baseless as is approved by the initiated criminal cases against high-ranking officials of Pension Fund, Federal Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Finance…

Russia is stepping from a hole into the abyss

One of the main problems of the modern Russia is depopulation, i.e. population decrease, which is basically a slow extinction of the nation. Despite all the assurance by public servants, the death rate in Russia is increasing while the birth rate is below critical level. Even migration flow cannot change the situation for the better. In a long run, it will involve a lot of economical issues and lack of human resources meaning a catastrophe for Russia, which is already the land of vast unsettled areas.

With this background, there is a region with a perfect situation, without the depopulation process which is common to the rest of Russia, from Moscow to Karachay-Cherkessia. Moreover, it looks like there were never any demographical problems there. At least according to the official numbers.

This region is called Ingushetia. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, its population increased by 44 thousand people in the five past years alone, coming close to half a million people.

Ingushetia demonstrates one of the highest rates of natural increase (i.e. the difference between the born and the deceased). While the country showed the 1.6% decrease of its population, Ingushetia’s growth of the population was 13.2%. This year, the rate somewhat insignificantly decreased to 12.2% almost equaling to Chechnya’s rate (which is the leading region in natural population growth for many years).

However, it looks like that the Ingush demographical “reserve factor” has been exhausting: in 2014, only five years ago, the republic’s rate of natural increase was 17.2%.

According to statistical data, Ingush women give birth more often than average Russian women, and the Ingush population dies less frequently. Plus there is the highest average life expectancy in the country which is 83 years. It is almost ten years longer than the national average…

“Ghost voters”. There are thousands of them

One would think that other Russian official demographers would have to take cues from Ingushetia. There is a slight problem about it. Specialists deeply doubt the adequacy of the official statistical data with all those national “records.”

Here are just a few mismatches.

Since 2007, Ingushetia demonstrates a sharp increase of weighted average growth rate (which means it is “distillated” from fluctuations). It cannot be explained scientifically given that Ingushetia has had one of the highest birth rates in the country even before.

At the same time, by coincidence, it happened the next year after the introduction of the

national project called “Demography”. It allowed maternity capital payments for giving birth to the second child in the amount of 250,000 rubles. That “baby boom” literally represents massive data fraud. As early as 2011, the officers of Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in North Caucasian Federal District brought to light massive issuance of birth certificates in Sunzha regional hospital. The amount of damage to the government was preevaluated by 65 million rubles.

Defendant of the case, in particular, was a former branch manager of Pension Fund of Russia in Ingushetia, Movlat Vyshegrov. The names of the rest of the defendants stayed unknown to the wider public. It is crystal clear now why so. The criminal case has been under “investigation” for eight years now and it is still far from being brought to trial. To all appearances, it looks like they are trying to put it into cold storage and eventually derail the investigation.

Statistical “anomalies” turned out to be a crime

The birth rates are still staying stable despite the fact that Ingushetia shows (and follows the national trend here) the decrease in matrimony rate. For example, in 2014, there were 197 divorces per thousand marriages, while there are already 219 divorces this year. Obviously, it’s incongruity…

Year by year, the number of newborn children ranges from 13% to 15%, but the year of 2011 stands out sharply by jumping to 27% (from 9 to 11.5 thousand newborns) and then slowing back down. There cannot be any scientifical explanations for that, except for the statistical data being falsified. Especially as the “outburst” coincides again with the signing of the Presidential decree No 1199 “On assessment of efficiency of the executive bodies of Russian federal subjects.” One of its criteria happened to be the natural population growth rate.

One can only assume how many children were registered only “on paper.” It is important that it influences all the demographic factors including mortality and morbidity rates. It is clear that unborn but statistically registered children cannot get sick and die. It looks like they are “growing up” and they will be in the books until the next population census. As we know, it will be held in the upcoming year in Russia.

The unborn children also involve additional costs to the budget since the regions are lawfully obliged to contribute for health insurance to Federal Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund for each unemployed person (including the minors). It is widely known that the statistical data in this field is massively falsified, as in the case of the maternity capital.

In February, Investigation Committee opened a criminal case against the officials of at once several agencies (Ministry of Health, Ministry of Finance, Administration of the Federal Tax Service, and the regional Federal Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund) on the event of the false reporting of the number of insured people. Once again, just like in the Vyshegurov case, they did not publish any names. There were falsely reported almost 50 thousand people, which is one in ten of the republic’s citizens. This number suspiciously reminds of the one mentioned above—the increase of the republic’s population in the last five years. But it looks like no one really knows how many people in Ingushetia are born, get sick, live, and die in reality.

Chablin Anton